Bitcoin whales selling has been the talk of the town, sending ripples of fear and uncertainty through the crypto market. You’ve probably seen the headlines: massive wallets, holding hundreds of millions of dollars in Bitcoin, are on the move. When a single wallet transfers over $237 million in BTC to an exchange, it’s hard not to feel a little nervous. For many retail investors like you and me, these movements can feel like a warning sign—a signal that the smart money is cashing out before a major crash.
But what if I told you that this narrative, while scary, might not be the full story? What if this wave of selling isn’t a “sudden exodus” but a predictable, even healthy, part of a mature market cycle? Top on-chain analysts are urging everyone to stay calm, arguing that this behavior is typical for the later stages of a bull run. They see it not as panic, but as calculated, strategic profit-taking from long-term investors who have been in the game for years.
In this deep dive, we’re going to cut through the noise and get to the bottom of what’s really happening. We’ll explore the on-chain data, break down what experts from firms like Glassnode and Kronos Research are saying, and dissect the age-old “four-year cycle” theory to see if it still holds water in this new era of crypto. By the end, you’ll have a much clearer picture of what these whale movements mean and how you can position yourself wisely for what comes next.
Understanding the Recent Bitcoin Whales Selling Spree
Before we dive into the analysis, let’s get on the same page about what’s causing all this commotion. Recently, the blockchain analytics platform Arkham flagged a massive transaction. A wallet, identified as belonging to an early adopter named Owen Gunden, moved a staggering 2,400 Bitcoin—worth about $237 million at the time—to the Kraken crypto exchange. Transactions of this size are impossible to ignore.
So, what exactly is a “Bitcoin whale”? In simple terms, a whale is an individual or entity that holds a very large amount of Bitcoin. There’s no official definition, but typically, anyone holding 1,000 BTC or more is considered a whale. Because they control such a significant portion of the supply, their actions can create major waves in the market. Think of the crypto market as an ocean. A small trader buying or selling is like a tiny fish—their movements barely disturb the water. A whale, on the other hand, is like a massive blue whale. When it decides to move, everyone feels the splash.
When a whale moves a large amount of Bitcoin from a private wallet (where it’s being held for the long term) to an exchange, it’s often interpreted as an intention to sell. Exchanges are where you trade crypto for cash or other digital assets. This is why a transfer like Gunden’s immediately puts the market on high alert. It signals a huge amount of new supply could be about to hit the market, potentially driving the price down.
Glassnode’s Analysis: Why This Bitcoin Whales Selling is “Normal”
While the initial reaction to whale selling is often fear, the data analytics firm Glassnode has a different, more nuanced take. They argue that what we’re seeing is not a panicked dump but “normal bull-market behavior.” To understand their point, we need to look at who is doing the selling.
Glassnode makes a crucial distinction between two types of investors:
- Long-Term Holders (LTHs): These are the “older hands” or “OGs” of Bitcoin. They are wallets that have held their Bitcoin for over 155 days without moving them. They are generally considered smart money, as they tend to buy during bear markets and sell during bull markets.
- Short-Term Holders (STHs): These are newer market participants who have held their coins for less than 155 days. They are more likely to be influenced by short-term price movements and market hype.
According to Glassnode’s data, the recent selling pressure is coming primarily from Long-Term Holders. Their “monthly average spending” (a fancy term for selling or moving coins) has steadily climbed from around 12,000 BTC per day back in July 2025 to about 26,000 BTC per day now. While that sounds like a lot, Glassnode points out that this increase has been gradual and evenly spaced. It’s not a sudden, panicked rush for the exits.
Instead, they describe it as “increasing distribution pressure from older investor cohorts.” In simpler terms, the OGs are slowly and systematically taking profits off the table after a massive run-up. This is a pattern they’ve seen in every single previous bull cycle. These investors have weathered multiple bear markets and understand that no asset goes up forever. Taking profits during periods of market strength is a fundamental part of a successful long-term strategy. It’s not a sign that they’ve lost faith in Bitcoin; it’s a sign that they are disciplined investors managing their risk.
Are We in a Late-Cycle? What the Bitcoin Whales Selling Tells Us
The idea that this is “late-cycle” behavior is a common theme among analysts. Vincent Liu, the CIO at Kronos Research, agrees that the whale sales represent a structured and steady rotation of profits, not a panic. But what does “late-cycle” actually mean? It doesn’t necessarily mean the absolute top is in and a crash is imminent. Rather, it describes a phase where the explosive, early-stage momentum begins to cool down. The market becomes less driven by pure hype and more influenced by broader macroeconomic factors, like interest rate policies and overall liquidity in the financial system.
Liu makes a critical point: “Late cycle doesn’t mean the market is capped, it means momentum has cooled… as long as there are buyers to scoop up the new supply.” This is the key. For every whale selling, there needs to be enough new demand to absorb those coins without tanking the price. This demand has been coming from new institutional players and retail investors who entered the market following the landmark approval of Spot Bitcoin ETFs in 2024.
A Glimmer of Hope: On-Chain Indicators and Bitcoin Whales Selling
Even as whales take profits, other on-chain indicators suggest there might be more room to run. Liu points to a metric called the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL). This sounds complicated, but the concept is simple. NUPL basically measures the overall mood of the market by looking at whether the total supply of Bitcoin is, on average, in a state of profit or loss.
- A high NUPL value (blue zone) suggests the market is euphoric and overheated, often signaling a market top.
- A low NUPL value (red zone) suggests the market is in capitulation and fear, often signaling a bottom.
Currently, Liu notes the NUPL is at 0.476. This level is far from the euphoric peaks seen at previous cycle tops. In fact, he suggests it can be a signal that “short-term lows may be forming.” This means that while long-term holders are selling, the market might be finding a stable floor at these prices, offering a strategic entry point for those with a longer time horizon. Of course, it’s crucial to remember that NUPL is just one indicator. A true market bottom is only confirmed when multiple indicators align, but it provides a valuable counterpoint to the fear-driven narrative.
The Four-Year Cycle Theory: Does it Still Apply to Bitcoin Whales Selling?
One of the most debated topics in crypto is the four-year cycle. Historically, Bitcoin’s price has followed a predictable rhythm, largely tied to its “halving” events—a programmed reduction in the new supply of Bitcoin that occurs roughly every four years. The last halving was in 2024, and historically, a market top has followed about 12-18 months later.
The Case for a Market Top (Based on the 4-Year Cycle)
Charlie Sherry, from the Australian crypto exchange BTC Markets, points out that the timing of our recent all-time high is eerily similar to previous cycles. Let’s look at the numbers:
- 2017 Cycle Top: Occurred in December 2017, roughly 1,067 days after the cycle bottom.
- 2021 Cycle Top: Occurred in November 2021, approximately 1,058 days after the cycle low.
- 2025 Cycle Top: The recent all-time high on October 6, 2025, came 1,050 days from the bottom.
The similarity is striking. From this perspective, it’s entirely plausible that we have already seen the peak for this cycle and are now entering the early stages of a new bear market. The current profit-taking from whales would fit perfectly into this theory, as they would be selling at or near the perceived top.
The Case Against the 4-Year Cycle: A New Era for Bitcoin
However, Sherry is also quick to point out that the “four-year cycle concept isn’t bulletproof.” The Bitcoin market of 2025 is fundamentally different from the markets of 2021 and 2017. The biggest game-changer has been the introduction of Spot Bitcoin ETFs from financial giants like BlackRock and Fidelity. These products have created a new, massive channel for institutional and retail capital to flow into Bitcoin.
These new buyers—pension funds, corporate treasuries, and everyday investors using their brokerage accounts—don’t operate on the same four-year rhythm. They aren’t crypto-native traders trying to time halving cycles. They are allocating a small percentage of their vast portfolios to Bitcoin as a long-term store of value or a hedge against inflation. As Sherry notes, “These buyers don’t trade cycles or follow the four-year rhythm.”
While the appetite from these players has been a bit weaker recently amid macroeconomic uncertainty, that can change very quickly. A shift in Federal Reserve policy or renewed confidence in the economy could open the floodgates of institutional demand once again. This new, persistent source of buying pressure could be strong enough to break the old, predictable four-year pattern, leading to a longer, more sustained bull market or a “supercycle.” For more information on how these products work, you can read this excellent guide on Bitcoin ETFs from Forbes.
What Should You Do About Bitcoin Whales Selling? A Strategic Approach
So, with all this conflicting information, what’s a regular investor supposed to do? The answer is to stay calm, think strategically, and focus on your own financial goals.
1. Don’t Panic Sell: The number one rule is to avoid making emotional decisions. The data suggests that this selling is part of a normal cycle, not a catastrophic event. Whales are taking profits, which is a smart move for them after holding for years. Panic selling into their calculated distribution is often how retail investors end up losing money.
2. Zoom Out and Re-evaluate Your Thesis: Take this opportunity to ask yourself why you invested in Bitcoin in the first place. Was it a short-term trade, or do you believe in its long-term potential as a decentralized store of value? If your conviction remains strong, then short-term price fluctuations caused by whale movements shouldn’t shake you out of your position.
3. Consider Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA): If you are a long-term believer, periods of price weakness can be viewed as opportunities. Dollar-Cost Averaging is a strategy where you invest a fixed amount of money at regular intervals, regardless of the price. This allows you to buy more BTC when the price is low and less when it’s high, smoothing out your average entry price and reducing the risk of trying to “time the market.”
4. Do Your Own Research (DYOR): Don’t just take my word for it, or anyone else’s. The beauty of blockchain is its transparency. You can use tools like Glassnode or Arkham Intelligence to look at the on-chain data for yourself. By learning to read these charts and understand the metrics, you can empower yourself to make more informed decisions instead of reacting to scary headlines.
Conclusion: A Market in Transition
The story of Bitcoin whales selling in late 2025 is not a simple one of good vs. bad or bull vs. bear. It’s a story of a market that is maturing. On one hand, we see the familiar patterns of past cycles playing out, with long-term holders wisely taking profits after a phenomenal run. On the other hand, we have powerful new forces at play—namely, institutional adoption through ETFs—that threaten to rewrite the old rulebook.
Ultimately, only time will tell whether we have just seen a cycle top or if this is merely a consolidation phase before the next leg up. The strength of the new institutional demand is being tested right now. What is clear is that the “stay calm” advice from analysts is sound. This is not a sudden, panicked exodus. It is a calculated, predictable phase of the market. By understanding the nuances, focusing on your long-term strategy, and avoiding emotional reactions, you can navigate this period of uncertainty with confidence and position yourself for the future, whatever it may hold.
